We are immensely proud of our relationships with our wonderful clients and sincerely thank you for the trust you have bestowed to us. As we present our Q3 Market Commentary and embark on year three of PB FAM Private Wealth, we are firing on all cylinders. The two large cap equity portfolios that we actively manage for many clients have outpaced the S&P 500 by ~3%+, which reflects the current strength of our management strategy. The following year to date (as of 9/22/25) returns: PB FAM Core 60:+17%; PB FAM Low Turnover:+18.44%, vs. S&P 500:+14.39%.
Further, many of our market predictions and forecasts have come to fruition over this past year. Over the past year, we have made the following projections that we can check off as being accurate – with several milestones on the verge of receiving the check:
✓ S&P 500 target for 2025: 6,600 (achieved on 9/15/25)
✓ September quarter point Fed rate cut (achieved on 9/17/25)
✓ Tax cuts extended (One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed on 7/4/2025)
✓ 2025 market correction, (February through April 9th) and a sharp rebound (we trimmed in advance of the decline and bought on the dip.
□ 2025 quarter point Fed rate cuts: two to three (first cut of .25bps on 9/17/2025)
Our new predictions are as follows:
□ 2026 S&P 500 target of 7,300
□ Further Fed cuts in 2026 to bring the Federal Funds rate down to neutral: 3%-3.25% (current range of 4%-4.25%)
What is driving the markets and why do we think this trend will continue?
- Earnings Growth: US Large cap companies are generally lean and getting leaner, which will lead to profit margin expansion. This is important because without earnings growth, stocks can become too expensive.
- Artificial Intelligence (“AI”): is in the early stage of it’s evolution and is significant drive for implementing operating efficiencies. AI is a game changer. The widespread adoption is poised to drive markets much higher over the next several years (both from spending on AI chip companies: think Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Oracle (ORCL) (which just joined this club) … speeding up the delivery of productivity and ingenuity, etc. We are reaching an inflection point of adopt or lag.
- Anticipation of what is to come; lower short term borrowing rates, tax incentives (bonus depreciation), and potential for infrastructure boom.
The most significant economic driver is President Trump. Everything has become political. Regardless of your politics, President Trump is going to do everything in his ever-expanding executive power to drive domestic economic growth ahead of the 2026 mid-term election. The economy needs to have favorable conditions for the Republicans to hold the majority in the House and Senate in the midterm elections. While the strength of the stock market is important, the voting populace will also be focused on inflation and consumer prices. If the Republicans lose the majority in the House or Senate (which is likely if the overwhelming historical trends of mid-term elections hold true), the economy has a higher likelihood of a short-term plateau since the attention will turn to oversight inquiries, impeachment hearings, etc. (we have read this book before in 2018/2019). If that happens, we are prepared to trim our overweight to equities position and wait out the ensuing economic consolidation.
What are the underpinning challenges that are emerging in the economy?
- Employment: The job market is slowing down and many talented professionals, especially in the technology sector, are experiencing a reduction in force. Recent executive order changes to the H-1B Visa program could also negatively impact hiring practices and cause disruptions to hiring practices. This is in addition to the decline in the Federal workforce, which was a bigger headline earlier this year (via DOGE). Ultimately, this will cause a retooling of the workforce. We would expect a lift in construction jobs driven by lower interest rates stimulating residential and commercial construction in addition to the numerous announced foreign investment projects and reshoring of American manufacturing. Healthcare and education job growth will likely remain strong.
- Global Conflicts: Global political division continues to intensify and may be reaching a boiling point. The Russia/Ukraine is dragging and the harsh Ukrainian winter is upon us. Russia is increasingly more aggressive and starting to violate the airspace of NATO allies. Regarding Israel/Gaza - most of you know Raanan’s personal feelings on this subject. When then include the consummate bad actors of Iran and North Korea and we are reaching a point of picking sides – which begins to feel as though a cold (or hot) war is brewing. The question becomes: what side will China, India, and several others take? We are also witnessing expanded intra-country political division in many democratic countries, as the Labor/Progressive (Democrat) vs. Conservative (Republican) split intensifies. We actively monitor these developments with a keen eye on the impact of global affairs on public markets. This is also why portfolio diversification is so important.
In conclusion, despite the challenges, we expect further upside in financial markets in 2026 and are maintaining our overweight to equities. Please contact the team with questions regarding your personal portfolio/asset allocation.
Wealth Planning Considerations for the Quarter:
Freeze Your Credit to Protect Yourself Against Identity Theft: Identity Theft is rampant and becoming more sophisticated. We strongly encourage you to “freeze” your credit and for your family members. Many of you have heard our focus on this through our 19-Point Checklist review. There are three credit bureaus to freeze: Equifax, Transunion, and Experian. To implement the freeze, you can start by Googling “freeze credit Equifax …”. This will direct you to Equifax website to freeze your credit. You will need to set up an account and keep the pins/passwords that you set up for each. There is no need to sign up for any of the paid services from one of these agencies. By freezing your credit you will be notified and need to unfreeze temporarily your credit in the event you apply for credit. However, this will reduce the likelihood that a nefarious actor can establish credit in your name without your knowledge.
Obtain an IRS Pin: We encourage you and your tax-filing family members to apply for this pin. The pin will be needed every year when you file your tax return and changes annually. This will stop the fraudsters from filing tax returns in your name as they try to divert funds from the government. We have seen this several times occur, the IRS pin system is designed to reduce this from happening. To file for a Pin, visit the IRS website and apply through the online portal. Your CPA may also be able to assist.
Practice Prudent Online Management and Oversight:
- Avoid Phishing Links: Do not click on links in emails unless you are familiar with the sender or expecting the email. Phishing scams are everywhere.
- Change Your Passwords Regularly: We have seen several instances of fraudsters taking control of a client’s email and submitting requests for transfers. Fortunately, we know you on an individual level and have a stringent policy of additional verifications before we send funds from your accounts. This can include verbal verifications and e-sign documents verifying the request. We know the verification redundancies can often be a nuisance, but please know it is all in the interest of your protection.
- Do Not Disclose Your Social Security to Unknown Callers: Do not provide your social security number over the phone to someone who calls you. Also, if you receive a threatening call from the IRS, police, or any other unknown caller, hang up. Government agencies are more likely to communicate through standard mail. We have also experienced instances of an alleged “family member” calling and asking for money because of an accident or family emergency. AI is expanding the fraudsters’ toolbox as they can impersonate people you know and trust. Even when the fraudster confirms your personal information, please know that this information is already available on the Internet. If you receive a call like this, hang up, regroup, and do your due diligence before responding.
- Review Your Credit Report Annually: We encourage you to review your credit report at least annually and look for inconsistencies.
Secure Communications via My Rep Chat: The security of client communications and account information is always a top priority. “My Rep Chat” provides secure communication for account related discussions via text messaging. As a reminder, when a question or discussion point arises relating to your account, we ask that you contact us by way of the following methods; 1. Phone call (voice), 2. e-mail, or 3. Text Message via My Rep Chat at one of the following numbers:
Raanan Pritzker: (404) 418-4445 Brian Brenneman: (404) 418-4447
Neal Foushee: (404) 418-4446 Andrew Bacharach: (404) 418-4448
Stephen Che'menju: (404) 418-4452
Finally, please call us if you have any questions about this or any other financial related questions. We are always here for you to provide support and expertise. As always, thank you for the opportunity to serve you and your family!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and there is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.